Mailbag: Who will carry the NL flag in 2012?

Senior circuit doesn't compare to AL, but Marlins might be poised to shine

Joe Skipper / Reuters

While the NL doesn't possess a dominant team this season, Jose Reyes' Marlins appear to be poised for a breakout.

MLB EXPERT MAILBAG

By Tony DeMarco

NBCSports.com contributor

updated 9:23 p.m. ET April 3, 2012

Tony DeMarco

Baseball Expert Tony DeMarco has been covering the big leagues since 1987, and been casting Hall of Fame ballots for the last 14 years. He answers questions weekly here:

Q: A friend of mine argues that multiple contenders in a division reduces wins, as they beat each other head-to-head. His argument concludes there will be no 90-win teams in the NL this year, and the second wildcard can get in with as few as 84 wins. Plausible?
? Mike Henn, Coronado, Calif.

A: There is no dominant NL team coming out of spring training; your friend is right about that. In fact, I wouldn't put any NL team in the MLB top five, who in my opinion, are the Angels, Yankees, Rangers, Tigers and Rays.

However, that doesn't mean a 90-plus-win team won't emerge in the NL. In fact, history shows one always does. Going back to 1996, the first full season of the three-division/wild card format (1994 and 1995 were strike-shortened), there hasn't been a season without at least one 90-game winner in either league.

Two close calls: In 2007, only the Diamondbacks won 90 in the NL, but the Phillies, Rockies and Padres were at 89, while the Cubs won the Central with 84 wins. And in 2006, the Mets led with 97 wins, the Padres and Dodgers tied for second-most with 88, and the Cardinals won the Central with only 83 wins (and went onto win the World Series).

The Phillies won 102 last season, so dipping below 90 will be quite a comedown. But injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, age throughout the Phils' roster, and expected improvements by the Marlins and Nationals should dramatically tighten up the NL East race.

The Diamondbacks won 94 games last season, but history says they're due to fall back after their dramatic 29-game improvement. That said, I like the moves Kevin Towers made ? Trevor Cahill, Jason Kubel, Takashi Saito, Craig Breslow ? and there are excellent starting pitching prospects about to emerge, so they could win 90 again.

The Giants also can bump up four more wins just by having Buster Posey back, staying healthy, getting a breakout from Brandon Belt, and solid contributions from new outfielders Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan.

The NL Central could be a three-team race, with the Cardinals, Reds and Brewers all looking like 85-90-win teams at this point. But the team I think has the most potential for a breakthrough is the Miami Marlins.

Everything will have to go right, but 90-plus wins are possible when you consider 1) the additions of Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle; 2) Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez possibly returning to All-Star form after injury-interrupted 2011 seasons, 3) the potential breakout of Giancarlo Stanton, and to a lesser degree Logan Morrison; and 4) what could be a huge lift emotionally with the move from always-empty Sun Life Stadium to an energized, new ballpark.

As for the second NL wild card, 84 wins seems a bit low to me. In fact, in the 16 seasons of the three division-wildcard format, only once (1997 Angels) would 84 wins have been enough to qualify as the second wildcard. There also were two occasions (2006 Phillies, 1996 Mariners and White Sox), when 85 wins would have been enough; and the average has been about 89 wins.

At the other extreme, the 1999 Reds would have been the second wild card with 96 wins, and the 2005 Indians, 2003 Mariners and 2002 Red Sox would have been the second wild card with 93 wins apiece.

That sure beats the fate of the 1993 Giants, who won 103 games and didn't make the playoffs. They finished second in the NL West to the 104-win Braves, and were left out ? and that was at least part of the reason why commissioner Bud Selig instituted his three-division/wild card format the following season.

Q: I see veterans like Roy Oswalt, Johnny Damon and Vladimir Guerrero who still can play, some of whom are close to Hall of Fame caliber, without jobs. Why aren't they getting offers?
? Dennis, Ocean Beach, Calif.

A: All three aren't the players they used to be; it happens to everybody. That said, they could be productive as part-time players, and that still could happen in all three cases.

Damon's agent said this week that he expects Damon to sign before May 1, and I won't be surprised if that's the case. You would think that the Indians would have interest ? assuming the dollars are right ? considering they just tried to trade for Bobby Abreu, who has similar skills to Damon.

The problem for Damon, and certainly Guerrero, is that they're both best-suited to be DH's at this point. That means only 14 jobs at most, and a handful of teams have established DHs ? Michael Young, Justin Morneau, David Ortiz, Kendrys Morales, Travis Hafner, Jesus Montero.

Other teams prefer to either rotate veteran regular players through the DH spot to give them partial rest (the Yankees and Tigers are prime examples), or in non-contending situations, give the at-bats to younger players. That said, you'd think the A's would have wanted Guerrero or even Damon instead of Manny Ramirez, who can't play until June 1.

Oswalt preferred to sign with either St. Louis or Texas, mostly for geographical reasons (he lives in Mississippi). I'm sure he'll turn up somewhere a bit later this season, when a need develops with one of the top contenders.

Q: I saw that Barry Zito is ditching his new delivery. is there any hope of him ever being a good pitcher again?
? Jordan Rickers, Portland, Ore.

A: It's been a terrible spring for Zito, who has pitched through an injured right ankle (his landing ankle). Even taking that and the favorable hitting conditions in Arizona into account, it's hard to ignore Zito's terrible spring results: 7.91 ERA, .405 opponents' batting average and 2.28 WHIP (32 hits and 12 walks in 19.1 innings).

Unfortunately for the Giants, they don't have any better options at this point, as No. 4 starter Ryan Vogelsong has been behind schedule all spring due to injury, and will start the season on the disabled list.

The Giants take a lot of heat for the Zito contract (seven years, $126 million) and rightfully so. Signs of decline already were evident across the board when they signed him back in 2007, and they should have known better than give him such a long-term deal. ERA, strikeouts/nine innings, walks/nine innings, WHIP ? everything was worse in 2004-2006 for Zito than it was in 2001-03. And it's only gotten worse in four seasons with the Giants.

But in Zito's defense, he has been durable as a No. 4-5 starter ? a useful commodity, but obviously so far below expectation at that salary level. And at 34, that's about all he can be at this point, with his velocity down too far to offer enough differentiation between that pitch and his change-up.

? 2012 NBC Sports.com? Reprints

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Egypt revolution graffiti brings down barricades

They were hit, pushed back and even fired at, but Egyptian activists have returned to the scene of deadly clashes in the heart of Cairo, determined to keep their revolution alive, this time armed with paint brushes.

From a distance, Sheikh Rihan street, a wide avenue in Cairo's usually busy administrative centre, looks eerily still. Not a car, not a moving soul.

But get closer, and a trompe l'oeil becomes apparent.

On the surface of a concrete wall built by security forces in the middle of the road, artists have painted a street scene recreating Sheikh Rihan with all its lamposts, pavements and trees, in a bid to melt away the barricades as part of their "No Walls" campaign.

Even after a popular uprising ousted veteran president Hosni Mubarak last year, activists have continued taking to the streets to push for the goals of their revolution -- freedom, political transparency and social justice -- which they say remain unfulfilled.

In November and December, fierce clashes between protesters and security forces in Cairo's administrative centre prompted authorities to erect a series of concrete walls to protect vital buildings, they said.

But protesters believe the walls were built to cage them in and prevent the spread of further protests.

"We didn't have a revolution so that in the end, they build walls to separate us from them and them from us," said Ammar Abu Bakr, a lecturer at the Fine Arts School in the historic city of Luxor, in southern Egypt.

"We have launched a non-violent campaign, simply by opening up the walls through drawing," Abu Bakr told AFP.

The once drab walls of downtown Cairo have turned into a giant graphic newspaper, recounting current events through an explosion of colour and form.

Caricatures of the ruling generals, portraits of protesters who died in clashes, scenes depicting street battles have turned the centre of the capital into an open air art gallery.

"Since our revolution is peaceful, if they play with walls, we will play with the mind. They put up a wall but we don't see it," said Amr Nazeer, a graffiti artist who participated in the No Walls campaign.

In a cat and mouse game with the authorities, the artists work fast to get exposure for their work before it is removed.

"It's an exhibition for the people, you express yourself and at most in a few days or a week it will be removed, then you paint again," Nazeer said.

"The message is always parallel to the events. When something happens or when there's an event, the revolutionaries come first and then we step in," said Abu Bakr, of the growing artists' movement defying authorities through chalk, paint, spray and stencils.

A ballerina on points, women in traditional robes carrying gas cylinders on their heads, wolves, spears, snakes with human heads, rainbows and balloons are just some of the images depicted in the murals that have covered the grey concrete walls.

"Authorities don't accept graffiti movements, not just in Egypt but all over the world... But we are trying to introduce a new style and propose new subjects," said Alaa Awad, another lecturer at the Luxor Fine Arts School.

Awad painted his own interpretation of a page from the Description de l'Egypte -- a rare copy of a book written by French scholars who accompanied Napoleon on his expedition to Egypt -- which was burned when the building housing it was set ablaze during clashes in December.

Authorities blamed protesters for starting the fire, saying they had deliberately destroyed precious Egyptian heritage, while the protesters insist they were the ones rushing to the scene to salvage what remained of the documents.

State media "tried to show that the revolutionaries were behind the destruction," Awad told AFP.

"My message is, there is no such thing as the Description of Egypt. Egypt needs to be described by its people," he said, standing in front of his blue and sand-coloured mural, which bears the slogan: "May we see the light of day."

A few weeks after it was completed, the enormous concrete blocks that provided the canvas for Awad's painting started coming down.

On Friday, dozens of angry anti-military activists, using a variety of creative mechanisms including ropes and levers, tore down the wall, on a main street leading to parliament near the protest hub of Tahrir Square.

After Mubarak was toppled in 2011, the military council of elderly generals who took power was idolised for not siding with the fallen dictator, but has since come under attack for cracking down on dissidents.

Back in central Cairo, the face of Samira Ibrahim, the woman who created a storm by taking the military to court over forced "virginity tests" of female protesters, features prominently.

On one wall, her face looks up defiantly above soldiers, all bearing the face of the army doctor who performed the virginity tests and who was recently acquitted.

Nearby, a series of portraits of the victims who died during clashes -- with bright orange wings -- cover one large wall.

Abu Bakr said he gave them wings because in Coptic Art -- his area of expertise -- "wings are related to martyrs, saints and angels."

The art has attracted many to the city centre, snapping pictures and posing in front of the graffiti.

"I pass by this street and I recognise the martyrs, yes, they sacrificed their lives. But as the graffiti says, they have now become angels," said Gamal al-Sayyed, an IT consultant.

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Utah mayor defends police in Susan Powell case

WEST VALLEY CITY, Utah ? A Utah mayor is defending his police department's handling of the Susan Powell case, insisting it did everything it could to resolve it.

After Friday's release of court documents linking Josh Powell to the 2009 disappearance of his wife, her family and prosecutors in Washington state questioned why he wasn't arrested for her murder before he killed himself and their two young children two months ago.

West Valley City Mayor Mike Winder told the Deseret News (http://bit.ly/H5aPZq ) that it's easy to second guess police decisions, but police didn't want to make a "premature arrest and let someone slip through."

West Valley City police say they still don't have a body, and no firm answers on where and if a murder took place.

___

Information from: Deseret News, http://www.deseretnews.com

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Salary cut sparks fears | Personal Finance | Financial Post

Andrew Allentuck? Mar 30, 2012 ? 12:00 PM ET | Last Updated: Mar 30, 2012 8:47 AM ET

Not far from Toronto, a couple we?ll call Morris, 48, and Lisa, 46, and their three teenaged children have run into a problem that, regrettably, is not so rare these days. His company, seeking to cut costs, gave him an ultimatum: Take a salary cut and give up his defined-benefit pension plan or find somewhere else to work.

With his expenses already taking almost all of his income, Morris swallowed his pride and took a $23,000 reduction in his $138,000 salary.? His new pension plan is a do-it-yourself, defined-contribution plan in which he has responsibility for management.

Under the old plan, in which retirement benefits until death were essentially guaranteed by the employer, long life would have been gift. Under the new plan, he can outlive his assets. Long life could be liability. There is a cushion. His wife, Lisa, a civil servant, continues to earn $37,100 a year before tax.

Yet her salary now makes up for some of what Morris lost.

Her income no longer pays for frills but necessities. As a result, they have postponed family vacations and cut much other spending, though maintaining their substantial charitable contributions. Now the question is whether they can support a retirement without downsizing their way of life.

Family Finance asked Graeme Egan, a financial planner and portfolio manager at KCM Wealth Management Inc. in Vancouver, to work with the couple to plan for life with less money.

Cash management

To economize, Morris and Lisa have stopped contributing to the family registered education savings plan for their eldest child, now 18, who can no longer receive the Canada Education Savings Grant. They continue to contribute $5,000 a year for their younger children, ages 16 and 14. That?s enough to qualify for the full CESG of the lesser of $500 or 20% of contributions. The current balance of the family RESP, $77,000, is fairly modest for what is potentially 12 years of tuition. They are committed to paying those bills out of pocket after the RESP is used up. They can?t rely on the company pension for permanent income in retirement, so they are really borrowing against their retirement to finance the kids? post-secondary schooling.

They have a $27,000 line of credit at 4%. It costs $300 a month in after-tax dollars that make it equivalent to about 5.5%. It can be paid off by taking $23,000 from Morris?s employee profit-sharing plan. The balance of $4,000 can come from the couple?s tax-free savings accounts.

Morris?s registered investments total $329,000. Assuming he adds $1,355 a month and the investments grow at 3% a year after inflation adjustment, they will total $706,760 when he reaches 60 in 2024.

Annual company contributions to his pension plan, $7,000 a year, and TFSA savings of $5,000 a year should grow to $170,000 at 3% after inflation. That will push his retirement funds to $875,869 at his age 60. He will also receive $4,000 a year from the old company plan.

Retirement planning

Lisa retains her defined-benefit pension plan as a civil servant, though it will pay far less than Morris?s plan would have before it was terminated. At 65, Morris should be entitled to the maximum $11,840 Canada Pension Plan Benefit. Each will get full Old Age Security benefits, currently $6,480 a year, at age 65.

At 60, Morris would be entitled to a CPP benefit reduced by 36% for early application. Allowing for indexing at 2% a year, it would be would be $9,624 a year. Thus in 2024 he would have total income of CPP, his $4,000 company pension and $56,976 available from savings, with withdrawals exhausting funds by his age 90. This sum, $70,600, would add to Lisa?s salary of an estimated $43,500 for total annual family income of $114,100.

Lisa has $128,000 of registered investments. If those savings grow at $7,000 a year through contributions for the next 14 years and if $5,000 goes into her TFSA each year, and if those savings grow at 3% a year after inflation, she would have approximately $398,647 at her age 60. If she withdraws funds from age 60 so that all registered funds are exhausted by her age 95, her initial retirement income would be $24,346 a year.

At age 60, Lisa will be entitled to a DB pension of $14,625 a year, including a bridge to age 65. Her CPP entitlement would be 50% of the full amount, reduced by 36% at 60 to $3,788 in 2012 dollars or $5,000 in future dollars. Her total income would therefore be $43,971 a year.

From Lisa?s age 60 to her age 65, total family income would be $114,571 before tax. At 65, Morris would get Old Age Security benefits of $8,800 in future dollars. When Lisa is 65, her bridge of $4,835 would disappear, but Old Age Security of about $9,200 in future dollars would begin and push their total income up to nearly $128,000. Assuming they can split their pension income, they would have a 25% tax rate, which would leave them with after-tax annual income of approximately $96,000 a year, or $8,000 a month. That will cover $7,100 current monthly expenses net of current debt service, retirement savings and education and child costs, including food and clothing. Their after-tax discretionary income in retirement will be about what it is today, Mr. Egan says.

?It is possible to adjust one?s financial life, even after getting a salary reduction and being forced out of a good pension plan,? Mr. Egan says.? ?The solution is planning.?

Need help getting out of a financial fix? Email andrewallentuck@mts.net for a free Family Finance analysis.

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Customer Service Buzz ? How to Win over Your Support Page

This is the second in a two-part series about the importance of web ownership?earlier we explored WHY your support page is important, and here we will tell you HOW you can get that ownership?

I recently blogged about the importance of your support page, and gave you three reasons why you should be showing it a little love. (As a brief recap, the page is important because your customers love online service, there are huge cost savings, and poorly designed pages drive disloyalty.)

We noticed though, in 2009, that the ?love? for these pages seemed to be missing, and service teams suffered from a lack of web ownership. But we are wondering now if that trend has changed over the years, and so we asked you about your relationship with the web page today.

And the results seem fairly encouraging. The vast majority (over 70% of our members) say that they have at least a modest level of ownership over the support page, with 31% saying that they have gained that control within the past few years. Only 29% of members said they had little to no ownership over that page because another team is in charge of content and design changes.

Though this is a significant shift from the state of affairs in 2009, we think it could be even better. Whether it?s a change in the placement of the phone number or revamping of the FAQs, there are small?but important?changes that every service organization should make on their website. To gain more control over that page, it?s crucial for the service organization to demonstrate value to their business partners. Here are some steps to making your case:

• Step one: Find a current problem or failure point. Identify a shortcoming with the support page that drives customer dissatisfaction ? in increased call volumes, more customer complaints, and lower satisfaction scores.
• Step two: Quantify impact relative to the entire business. Customer metrics and data impact the entire company?for example, high customer effort means decreased customer loyalty, which in turn leads to customer churn and lower revenue for the company. Communicate these KPIs to business leaders in quantifiable terms to show the negative impacts on the business as a whole.
• Step three: Leverage unique advantages of customer service to craft a solution. As one of the few cross-functional groups, service has an intimate understanding of all customer-facing aspects of the organization. As such, you hold three unique advantages: proximity to customers, surveying expertise, and rich data collection. Use these skills to truly understand customers, and share them with your business partners to develop customer-centric improvements.

What do you think? What has been our strategy in gaining web ownership?

Related posts:

1. 3 Reasons to Show Your Support Page a Little Love
2. ?Green? Customer Experiences Are Win-Win-Win
3. The Loyalty Opportunity for B2B Service and Support
4. Is Google+ a Customer Support Game-Changer?
5. Making Your Customers Work Too Hard To Get Support May Be Driving Them Away From Your Products

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